| I. |
INTRODUCTION |
| |
| II. |
OVERVIEW |
|
A. |
HIGHLIGHTS |
|
B. |
TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2007 |
|
C. |
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE |
|
D. |
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS |
|
E. |
CONCLUSION |
| |
| III. |
FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR |
|
A. |
OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2007 |
|
|
1. | OASI Trust Fund |
|
|
2. | DI Trust Fund |
|
|
3. | OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined |
|
B. |
SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 2007 REPORT |
| |
| IV. |
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES |
|
A. |
SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES |
|
|
1. | Operations of the OASI Trust Fund |
|
|
2. | Operations of the DI Trust Fund |
|
|
3. | Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds |
|
|
4. | Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates From the 2007 Report |
|
B. |
LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES |
|
|
1. | Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances |
|
|
2. | Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries |
|
|
3. | Trust Fund Ratios |
|
|
4. | Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances |
|
|
5. | Additional Measures of OASDI Unfunded Obligations |
|
|
6. | Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance |
|
|
7. | Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report |
| |
| V. |
ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES |
|
A. |
DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS |
|
|
1. | Fertility Assumptions |
|
|
2. | Mortality Assumptions |
|
|
3. | Immigration Assumptions |
|
|
4. | Total Population Estimates |
|
|
5. | Life Expectancy Estimates |
|
B. |
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS |
|
|
1. | Productivity Assumptions |
|
|
2. | Price Inflation Assumptions |
|
|
3. | Average Earnings Assumptions |
|
|
4. | Assumed Real-Wage Differentials |
|
|
5. | Labor Force and Unemployment Projections |
|
|
6. | Gross Domestic Product Projections |
|
|
7. | Interest Rates |
|
C. |
PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS |
|
|
1. | Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters |
|
|
2. | Covered Employment |
|
|
3. | Taxable Payroll and Payroll Tax Revenue |
|
|
4. | Insured Population |
|
|
5. | Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries |
|
|
6. | Disability Insurance Beneficiaries |
|
|
7. | Average Benefits |
|
|
8. | Benefit Payments |
|
|
9. | Administrative Expenses |
|
|
10. | Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange |
|
|
11. | Benefits to Uninsured Persons |
|
|
12. | Military-Service Transfers |
|
|
13. | Income From Taxation of Benefits |
| |
| VI. |
APPENDICES |
|
A. |
HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS |
|
B. |
HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES |
|
C. |
FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2017 |
|
D. |
LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS |
|
|
1. | Total Fertility Rate |
|
|
2. | Death Rates |
|
|
3. | Net Immigration |
|
|
4. | Real-Wage Differential |
|
|
5. | Consumer Price Index |
|
|
6. | Real Interest Rate |
|
|
7. | Disability Incidence Rates |
|
|
8. | Disability Termination Rates |
|
E. |
STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS |
|
|
1. | Background |
|
|
2. | Methodology |
|
|
3. | Results |
|
F. |
ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED |
|
|
1. | Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll |
|
|
2. | Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product |
|
|
3. | Estimates in Dollars |
|
G. |
ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES |
|
H. |
GLOSSARY |
| |
| STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION |
www.socialsecurity.gov
