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Policy Option Projections

Below are our projections of the effects of various retirement policy proposals on Social Security beneficiaries. For each proposal, we also link to SSA's actuarial projections of the effects on the Social Security trust fund.

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  1. Benefit Formula
  2. Cost of Living
    Adjustment Changes
  3. Covered Worker
  4. Retirement
    Age Increases
  5. Taxation

Benefit Formula Changes

Details on the current benefit formula »

Proposal Start/End Date(s) Proposed by? Projected Effects on…
Beneficiaries in… Trust Fundsa
Credit earnings to caregivers' records
Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age six 2012/NA NASI 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B7.3
Increase the computation period from 35 years
To 40 years (does not apply to DI) 2012/2020 SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B4.2
Index PIA factors to longevity
Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2016 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility 2021/NA Bipartisan Policy Center 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B2.1
Price index the PIA formula
Reduce the formula factors by the difference in growth rates of wages and prices 2018/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B1.1
Protect the bottom 30% of workers from price indexing 2018/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B1.2
Reconfigure the minimum benefit
For workers with 10 to 30 years of coverage (YOC = 4 quarters earned that year) set PIA up to 125% of the monthly poverty level 2012/NA NASI 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B5.2
Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors
To 90%, 21%, and 10% over a 31-year period 2012/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B3.1
To 69.2%, 24.6%, and 11.5% over a 28-year period 2015/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B3.4
Reduce initial benefits
By 5% 2012/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT B7.2

NOTE: DI = disability insurance, OACT = Office of the Chief Actuary, SSAB = Social Security Advisory Board.

a. Because the timing of OACT updates to Trust Fund projections may not coincide with the timing of our updates, the specifications used to make these projections (e.g., years and amounts) may differ.